Arun Savi
Transport Planner,
Systra
The traffic & transportation surveys were conducted as a part of the study to assess the passenger movement pattern, freight movement and their travel characteristics within the study area. The data collection activities included both primary and secondary data sources such as classified traffic volume counts (TVC), origin-destination (O-D) surveys, public transport terminal surveys, tourist survey, and stated preference (SP) surveys to understand the willingness to shift to the proposed Silver Line and willingness to pay for the same journey.
The primary surveys such as TVC survey and OD Survey were conducted at 19 locations, public transport terminal surveys at 4 airports, railway stations and bus terminals at major towns and cities; all along the project influence area. Freight data was collected from major truck operators, freight forwarders and rail parcel service offices within Kerala and at border locations. Tourism surveys were conducted at major tourist destinations of Kerala and responses from both domestic & international tourists were recorded. In addition, significant data from secondary sources pertaining to demographic, vehicle registration, toll operator data, socio-economic characteristics, public transport system etc., was also collected as part of the data collection activity.
From the analysis, it is observed that 11% of the total trips are having trip length greater than 200Km. The modal share indicates that 42% are by two-wheelers, 36% by car and 5% by bus & minibus. When freight movement is considered, the modal share is 2% by multi-axle vehicle, 2% by 2Axle trucks, 5% LCVs and 2% Goods Auto. The peak hour of cumulative traffic at most of the locations were observed between 5.00 P.M and 6.00 P.M followed by 6.00 P.M to 7.00 P.M.
For future estimations, base year was considered as 2019-20, commissioning year as 2025-26 and horizon year as 2052-53. The daily ridership was estimated for four different scenarios as Pessimistic, Business-As-Usual, Realistic and Optimistic built-up based on variations in parameters such additional infrastructure developments, additional traffic generated, growth rates based on all India GDP and difference in mode-wise probability of shift from potential trips. The daily ridership was observed to be varying between approx. 54,000 daily trips in worst scenario to 1, 14,000 trips in optimistic scenario in 2025-26.
The realistic scenario is expected to generate approx. 79,934 daily trips in 2025-26 (including trips from airports, feeder service and TOD development).Regarding connectivity with airports, Kochi airport (CIAL) is proposed during the commissioning year itself and for Trivandrum, it is proposed to be developed at later stages, once demand arises. The sectional loads in the stretch between Trivandrum to Kozhikode is observed to be very high.
Apart from the above, demand assessment for operating tourist trains, sleeper trains and introducing restaurant car was also conducted and observed that there is potential for operating tourist trains but on a lease model and also for sleeper trains by private operators. However, sleeper train were observed only for weekend trips and not on daily basis. Introduction of restaurant cars in trains was found to be unviable from a revenue generation perspective. However, to make the journey attractive to the Silver line users, it is recommended to provide good quality and high-end restaurant type food through any reputed catering agency.
RoRo service if implemented through Silver line is expected to carry daily 445 trucks in the commissioning year and 693 trucks in the horizon year. RoRo is proposed to be operated during off-peak hours and night hours. But due to operational issues, the maximum trucks that can be carried by RoRo is capped at 480 daily trucks.
Multi modal Integration, Comprehensive mobility plans/regional mobility plans, Provision of city feeders, conducting periodic traffic surveys including opinion surveys every 3 years (minimum) during operational years are other recommendations to improve the ridership.
